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VOL. 71 (2), 321-339, 2005 HISTORY AND FUTURE OF POLIOVACCINATION...

IS POLIOMYELITIS ERADICATION FEASIBLE?

In the original Global Polio Eradication Initiative (document of
WHO) from 1988, poliomyelitis should be eradicated by the year
2000. However, this date was too optimistic. Since the creation of
the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, the global toll of polio
paralysis dropped from an estimated 350,000 (per year) to fewer
than 1,000 in 2004. The Americas had their last case of polio in 1991,
they were certified polio-free in 1994. In 2000, the Western Pacific
Region, including China, was declared polio-free. The European
region, including parts of the former Soviet Union, is on track to be
certified in 2002. The world awaits the end of polio in just 10
countries in Africa and South Asia (29). In other words: the «polio
endgame» is going on. Global certification of polio eradication is
now scheduled for the year 2005.

TABLE 3. Polio eradication: quick facts

• There are 20 million polio survivors worldwide, including one million in the U.S.
• Five million children have been prevented from contracting polio since the effort

began.
• Polio will be only the second disease ever to be eradicated by mankind.
• The world has reduced polio by a staggering 99%. But it’s the last 1% that’s the

hardest to overcome – that is what our film focuses on.
• In 1988, there were 350,000 new cases of polio a year. In 2004, there were 1,000.
• If polio returns to the pre-eradication level, 1,000 new cases a day could appear.
• The global polio eradication effort is the largest public health initiative in his-

tory.
• Many health workers and volunteers risk their lives to immunize children.
• The cost of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) is $0.11 per dose.

An important question to answer is: Will it be possible to cease
immunization? The ultimate benefits of polio eradication, including
the estimated global savings of • 1.5 billion annually, will be gained
only after the cessation of polio immunization. Before polio
immunizations can be stopped, all laboratory polioviruses must be
destroyed or transferred to maximum biosafety containment facilities.

The WHO plan to cease immunization is based on the model
used to fight smallpox. Unfortunately, the two viruses differ

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